Could Fantasy save streaming downturns and churn?

Is it happening? Are book sales finally meeting the same fate as every other paper publishing medium and seeing a downturn? Sadly, the answer is yes. Print book sales dropped 4.1% in 2023, and 0.4% in 2024 so far. 

But it’s not all bad. Some genres are seeing a growth in sales - specifically Fantasy. The Fantasy and Romatantacy (Romance Fantasy) book sales have actually grown by 85.2%! 

This is all thanks to two authors: Sarah J. Maas, author of the “Court of Thorns and Roses” series, and Rebecca Yarros, author of Fourth Wing and Iron Flame, both Romatantacy novels. 

Maas has sold over 38 million copies of her series, and Yarros sold more books this year than the top 10 new books combined.

So the question on our minds is, if Fantasy can save the book industry, can it have the same “boosting” effects on streaming services? 

We’ve already seen some proof of this happening.

Amazon Prime did extremely well in 2023 thanks to their two fantasy series “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” and “The Boys”. It’s also no coincidence that Disney plus finally turned a profit this year, and their top watched show was… you guessed it a Fantasy series, called “Percy Jackson and The Olympians”. 

Fantasy, specifically Fantasy book adaptation could significantly boost streaming subscriptions in 2024/2025. We believe that the streaming services that can adapt the most successful Fantasy book series will see profits skyrocket, churn rates plummet and put them in the top place among their competitors. 

In this blog post, we’ll explore all the reasons why Fantasy is the answer to streaming service success.

Let’s dive in. 

The Game of Thrones effect

Game of Thrones single handedly put HBO Max on the map. 

Over its lifetime this book adaptation brought in 3.2 billion worth of subscriptions for the streaming platform. 

The Game of Thrones series lasted eight years, and during those eight years, HBO Max subscriptions really didn’t falter within that period. And by the end of it, the series had earned them 4.8 billion.

Game of Thrones became arguably one of the biggest shows of all time. 

So much so, that amidst the hype, Jeff Bezos famously demanded that his Amazon executives find him “a Game of Thrones”.

It takes big shows like this to help a streaming service really take off - look at The Mandalorian and Disney plus, but it also takes big shows to sustain them over time. 

When the Madalorian aired, it brought people to the Disney plus platform, but it wasn’t until their second big fantasy series, Percy Jackson and The Olympians, that they had enough subscription revenue to turn a profit. 

One thing worth mentioning is that these shows are no easy feat to produce. So when a streaming service is airing their current Fantasy series, they should always be working to produce their next one. 

This is because a series like GOT takes time. The rights for the show were originally bought back in 2004, and it didn’t premiere on HBO until April 2011, six years later. 

Massive (loyal) fan-bases

The GOT series took off because it was an adaptation of a book that had sold 90 million copies worldwide. This translated into 44 million viewers for HBO Max. 

Similarly, popular present day Fantasy books like A Court of Thorns and Roses have sold 38 million copies - so that’s 38 million potential viewers and subscribers. 

Here’s what that fanbase data breakdown looks like:

The majority of her readers are females aged 25-34 from the US, they are pet lovers and movie buffs. Education is a top priority for them. Cassandra Clare is another popular author amongst this audience. This is a great insight for the streaming services who were not lucky enough to be selected to produce the ACOTAR by Sarah J Maas because you can still attract her audience by producing an adaptation of a series by Cassandra Clare (Shadowhunter Chronicles, Sword Catcher, or Magisterium). 

Another insight is that this audience is also fans of the Percy Jackson author - you might remember we mentioned that this series is what helped Disney plus turn a profit this year. Disney plus should have tried to produce the ACOTAR series because of the fan overlap of the two series. 

A built-in, loyal fan base

Not only do these series come with a built-in fan base to bring over to whichever streaming service adapts it, but these fans are the most loyal fans out there. 

The best case in point is the Lord of the Rings adaptation on Amazon Prime. 

When it was first released the reviews were terrible. Viewers chalked it up to being a “deeply flawed series that falls far short of the high standards set by Tolkien's original works.” Audiences complained about its pacing, poor characterization, and a heavy reliance on visuals over good storytelling. 

But the series still did well. 

Why? Because of its original Lord of The Rings fan base. Fans (25 million to be exact) tuned in to watch the show, even though they knew it was bad, because of their loyalty to the book series. 

So even if the Fantasy adaptation is poorly produced, it still helps bring in subscriptions, by the millions, thanks to the loyal fans.  

They help reduce churn rates 

Fantasy series are long. They can be 5 books like ACOTAR (A Court of Thorns and Roses) or even 10 books like the popular series Zodiac Academy. 

A collection with 5 books guarantees 5 seasons, usually over 5 years. That's 5 years that fans, or viewers will be subscribed to your service, to watch the series play out. 

Keeping audiences on for longer periods of time while they watch a series obviously helps reduce streaming services' churn rates. 

But that’s not all, Fantasy fans are very nostalgic. 

So even if they have finished the series, they love to re-watch it. How many people do you know who have re-watched the GOT series, or got their partner into it for example so they can re-watch with them? I know at least 4.

Also, the nature of fantasy is that the plot and scenes are so detailed and intricate that sometimes you don’t catch everything the first time around either, which is another reason why people re-watch the series. 

So even when the series is over, the nostalgic, re-watching fans stay subscribed to the streaming platform, and this reduces overall churn. 

Expansive universes = spin off shows 

For something to be considered Fantasy, it has to be set in an imaginary universe, with supernatural or magical creatures. The universes they are set in are usually very expansive - a lot of Fantasy books will actually display a map of the world within the first few pages.

The more expansive the universe, the more opportunity for spin-off shows. This is what happened with GOT and The House of Dragons. 

The House of Dragons was produced as a prequel to the Game of Thrones and focuses on the characters from House Targaryen (1 of the 9 great houses in the GOT series). 

So HBO brought in millions of subscribers with GOT and kept them engaged and subscribed with the spin-off show House of Dragons, which is already on its way to exceeding Game of Thrones ratings. 

And depending on how long they want to stretch things out, HBO could be riding GOT’s coat tails for a long long time. As we said, they are just covering 1 house of 9 in the latest series. 

The GOT universe is so expansive that they won’t run out of material, houses, or characters for years to come, and the same would go for any adaptations of the current Romatasy series out there. 

Just look at how many “Courts” there are in the ACOTAR series alone: 

That’s a lot of different regions, with different rulers, and hundreds of different storylines. So when you adapt a Fantasy series, you’re also claiming the rights to produce a handful of spin off shows, that keep your viewers engaged and subscribed.  

They hit the target market 

Everything a streaming service produces is in the interest of attracting more of its target audience.

The target audience of all streaming services share a lot of similarities with the target audience of Fantasy/ Romantasy novels, so it’s a match made in heaven. 

Take a look at the Fantasy Book audience surfaced by SOPRISM:

Then take a look at the target audience of Streaming Platforms: 

You’ll see lots of similarities, for example: 

• They are both young adults in the 25-34 year old age range
• They are digitally native/tech-savvy 
• They have a higher education level
• Both audiences are in the middle to upper-middle-income group
• Both target groups share a love for escapism, through streaming, and through Fantasy novels 
• Both are willing to invest significant time in their entertainment (Fantasy novels are typically longer than the average novel; the majority of Sarah J. Maas books are on average 450 pages long, Fourth Wing is 528 pages) 

So if streaming services pursue more Fantasy series, they are essentially attracting their exact target market.

Worldwide appeal

Romance and Fantasy are the top beloved genres worldwide.  

Whenever there is a show that is trending, like Love Island for example, it gets a lot of hype and views but does it get world wide views? Not necessarily. 

Shows like GOT bring subscribers all around the globe.

Look at the worldwide appeal of the ACOTAR series as shown through this Audiense map: 

They are EVERYWHERE! 

Think of the merch!

Merchandise is another revenue stream for streaming services, and if one thing is for sure, Fantasy fans love merch. 

Harry Potter is the most extreme example of this, but the movie franchise has sold $7.3B dollars worth of merchandise since the first movie came out. 

And even when a Fantasy show is long over, merch creates sustainable long-term revenue streams for streaming services. This is another reason why the adaptation of the right series can be a game changer to streaming service revenue. 

It’s good for the brand

After HBO created Game of Thrones, they created a stellar reputation for themselves. Everyone saw how perfectly they executed the show and associated HBO with having a higher production standard.

Streaming services that can get their hands on the rights to these Fantasy series, can end up being associated with high-quality, must-watch content. 

This can differentiate a streaming service from its competitors, and attract viewers who value that type of premium storytelling. 

The race to buy up the rights

Streaming platforms are locked in a fierce battle to secure the rights to popular Fantasy series, recognizing the genre's ability to attract and retain subscribers. Amazon Prime's recent acquisition of "Fourth Wing" before the book series is even complete demonstrates the level of competition.

Hulu, currently ranked 6th in the streaming platform rankings, has also made a significant move by securing the rights to "ACOTAR," one of the most popular Fantasy series on the market. This strategic acquisition aims to boost Hulu's subscriber base and compete with industry leaders.

However, the race for Fantasy content is far from over. There are still numerous popular series up for grabs, including "The Powerless Trilogy" by Lauren Roberts and "The Zodiac Academy" by Caroline Peckham. These series offer immense potential for streaming platforms seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for Fantasy entertainment.

Click here to view an Audiense report on Lauren Robert’s fans, or click here to uncover the audience behind the hit Fantasy series Zodiac Academy.

Future outlook 

​​Based on the success of Fantasy adaptations and the growing demand for the genre, it's clear that streaming services that prioritize Fantasy content are more likely to thrive. Hulu's recent acquisition of "A Court of Thorns and Roses" is a prime example of this strategy. As the series is released, we can expect to see a significant increase in Hulu's subscriber base and a decrease in churn.

However, the future of Fantasy in streaming is not without its challenges. As more platforms compete for the rights to popular Fantasy series, the cost of acquiring these properties is likely to rise. Additionally, the expectations of audiences are constantly evolving, and streaming services must continue to innovate to keep viewers engaged.

A thought for the audience: As a fan of Fantasy, what do you think streaming platforms can do to ensure that future adaptations remain true to the spirit of the original works while also appealing to a broader audience? What new trends or storytelling techniques could elevate the genre to even greater heights?

Hitting a home run 

Even if a Fantasy adaptation falls short of expectations, it can still attract loyal fans and generate revenue. However, the key to producing a truly successful series lies in understanding the target audience.

Audience insights are essential for making informed decisions about casting, production, and marketing. By leveraging tools like Audiense and SOPRISM, streaming platforms can gain valuable insights into the demographics, interests, and preferences of Fantasy fans.

In the competitive landscape of streaming, understanding your audience is the key to creating unforgettable content that resonates and drives long-term success.

Sign up today and discover how to create unforgettable content that resonates with your target audience.